The all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI), a measure of economy-wide inflation, was up 0.2% from June to July 2019 and is 1.8% above the July 2018 level. The CPI for all food was up 0.1% between June and July 2019, and food prices were 1.8% higher than the July 2018 level. The degree of food price inflation varies depending on whether the food was purchased for consumption away from home or at home.

• The food-away-from-home (restaurant purchases) CPI increased 0.2% in July and is 3.2% higher than July 2018; and
• The food-at-home (grocery store or supermarket food items) CPI remained flat from June to July but is 0.6% higher than last July.

Updated 2020 forecasts indicate a continuation of low inflation at grocery stores and supermarkets. In 2020, food-at-home prices are expected to increase in a range between 0.5 and 1.5%, as potentially the fifth year in a row with deflating or lower-than-average inflating retail food prices. Fats and oils and processed fruits and vegetables could see lower prices. Many products are expected to see price increases in 2020 below the 20-year historical average, including beef and veal, pork, other meats, poultry, fish and seafood, fresh vegetables, sugars and sweets, nonalcoholic beverages, and other foods. Eggs, dairy products, fresh fruits, and cereal and bakery products are expected to increase in price in a range near the 20-year historical average in 2020. Food-away-from-home prices are expected to continue growing at a consistent rate and to increase in a range between 2.0 and 3.0% again in 2020.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change in prices paid to domestic producers for their output. ERS does not currently forecast industry-level PPIs for unprocessed, processed, and finished foods and feeds, but these have historically shown a strong correlation with the all-food and food-at-home CPIs. Prices for unprocessed foods and feeds decreased 1.3%, prices for processed foods and feeds decreased 0.2%, and prices for finished consumer foods were down 0.4% from June to July 2019. Price changes at these earlier stages of production could be indicative of future trends at the retail level.

The farm-level egg PPI decreased 6.2% since June and is down 56.3% since this time last year. While it increased 33.2% in 2018, the farm-level egg PPI has been revised downward again this month and is expected to decrease in a range between 37.0 and 38.0% in 2019.

The farm-level fruit PPI decreased 7.2% since June and is down 15.8% since July 2018. In 2018, the farm-level fruit PPI decreased 1.9%, and expectations for 2019 have been revised down this month. The PPI for farm-level fruit is expected to decrease in a range between 6.0 and 7.0% in 2019.

*Revised August 23, 2019. Bolded entries reflect changes from the previous month's forecast.